Polemik Docs

The best predictive market.

Predictive markets Theory

Understand the fundamentals of predictive markets, how they aggregate information, and why they often outperform traditional forecasting methods.

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Market Math & Probabilities

Explore the mathematical foundations including probability theory, expected utility, random processes, and arbitrage relations that govern market pricing.

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Scoring Rules

Learn about Brier, logarithmic, and spherical scoring rules that incentivize accurate probability reporting and enable proper market mechanisms.

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Blockchain Implementation

Discover how predictive markets are modeled on-chain, including event structures, binary markets, off-chain orders, and EIP-712 typed signatures.

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LMSR Market Maker

Master the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), an automated market maker that provides continuous liquidity with bounded loss guarantees.

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Orderbook Markets

Understand orderbook-based markets with limit orders, market orders, matching algorithms, and price-time priority mechanisms.

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Conditional Token Framework

Explore the Conditional Token Framework (CTF) for creating combinatorial markets, position splitting, merging, and complex market structures.

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Negative Risk Markets

Learn how Polemik enables multi-candidate scenarios using binary markets, allowing complex event structures while maintaining simplicity and liquidity.

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